Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb halved, Chinese imagery is tied to a strike that killed three US troops, and JPMorgan now wants two hikes

Bab el-Mandeb traffic halved the day after Perim fell — the watchlist trigger that did not fire Friday

Preliminary Kpler data, reported Saturday by The National and stood up by UA.NEWS, put Friday’s Bab el-Mandeb vessel transits at 15, down from 30 on Thursday — six exiting the Red Sea, nine entering. Cargoes included crude, grain and steel; three ships were in ballast. That is the named wake on this brief’s Bab el-Mandeb thread: a collapse in transit counts.

Friday’s EOD Grok edition said transit and underwriting markers had not moved and kept Bab below the line. That framing is now wrong, and saying so is the point of having named the trigger. The drop follows the Houthi seizure of Perim (Mayyun), Mocha and Dhubab — positions on both banks of the strait.

The pump did not wait for a Joint War Committee circular. AAA’s national diesel average as of 12 September is $6.1602 — the highest figure on AAA’s own recorded table, up from $6.0556 on Friday morning. Gasoline is $4.3104. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the Hormuz workaround, still has no restart notice after Thursday’s precautionary shutdown. Brent settled Friday near $104.61, WTI near $100.05.

What to watch: whether Saturday and Sunday transits stay depressed or snap back; war-risk premiums or a JWC relisting (none found this morning); and any East-West restart before Monday’s Oman meeting.

The US links Chinese satellite imagery to the July strike that killed three American troops

US officials familiar with the matter say that before Iran’s 17 July ballistic-missile strike on a housing area at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan — three US troops killed, four wounded — Tehran acquired high-resolution satellite images of the base from Chinese entities. Iran procured images both before and after the attack. The reporting, in the Wall Street Journal and stood up Saturday by Hindustan Times, calls it the clearest evidence so far that Chinese support for Iran during the war had lethal consequences for US forces.

Officials declined to name the Chinese entities and did not allege direct involvement by Beijing. Senior US officials raised the imagery with Chinese counterparts, who demanded proof; Beijing has repeatedly dismissed the concern. In May the administration sanctioned MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang over imagery that could help Iran target US and partner forces. Chang Guang was previously accused of supporting Houthi targeting.

The finding lands twelve days before Xi Jinping is reported due at the White House on 24 September. Trump has told his team that maintaining relations with Xi is a priority; public US comments after July played the assistance down. Officials separately worry China could be helping Iran stalk US naval assets after recent near-miss ballistic shots at carriers.

What to watch: whether the administration puts the finding on the record before the 24th; any further designations; and whether the summit readout mentions Iran support at all.

JPMorgan now sees a hike next week and another in December

After Friday’s CPI, JPMorgan raised its Federal Reserve call to a 25-basis-point hike at the September meeting and another in December. Chief US economist Michael Feroli cited core PCE stuck above 3% each month this year and minimal progress toward the 2% target. The bank had previously leaned December-only.

The print that moved desks is already in Friday’s EOD edition and is not re-led here: headline CPI +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y; core +0.3% m/m (a tenth hot) and +2.4% y/y; food-at-home unchanged; transportation services +0.5%; gasoline +3.9% m/m; fuel oil +10.1% m/m and +52% y/y. FedWatch odds for a Wednesday hike sat in the mid-to-high 80s to nearly 90%. The funds rate is 3.50–3.75%. The Fed’s calendar has the meeting 15–16 September, statement and dots Wednesday the 16th at 2 p.m. Eastern. The 10-year touched near 4.98% before easing.

Your cadence on the Fed is prints and the decision only. This lead is the US-financials half: a systemically important bank rewriting its path after the last print before the meeting — not a state-of-play item on a quiet day.

What to watch: Wednesday’s statement and dots; whether dissenters from July are joined; and whether food-at-home stays flat in the next CPI while diesel sets records.

Staff at Anthropic and OpenAI are saying out loud what the labs already price privately

Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic this week after three years in pre-training research and wrote that leading labs are “racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.” Alignment lead Evan Hubinger replied that he personally puts more than a 10% chance on AI killing all humans within a decade, and that recursive self-improvement is the path he fears. OpenAI safety-oversight staffer Marcus Williams wrote that without regulation or a coordinated slowdown, human extinction in the next few years “seems very likely,” and when pressed offered “70% in the next 3 years if there isn’t regulation/slowdown.”

Similar posts followed from Anna Wang, Jen Leike and Samuel Marks at Anthropic, and from Paul Christiano, Julie Steele and Tomek Korbak at OpenAI. Geoffrey Hinton told the BBC a 10% extinction estimate within a decade was “not unreasonable.” Anthropic has already said in June and August that Claude is accelerating AI development — a possible path to RSI — and that its engineers ship roughly eight times as much code per quarter as in 2021–25.

This is adjacent to, not the same as, the frontier-lab-safety thread opened on the METR investigation into Anthropic’s own eval incidents. No METR report has published. The policy hook is whether public staff risk numbers move Congress or state attorneys general before California’s 30 September bill deadline.

What to watch: any lab slowing a release calendar on the record; METR’s report; and whether regulators treat staff p(doom) posts as evidence in the preemption fight.

Monday in Oman is still a meeting date, not a Hormuz corridor

Nothing new overnight on the text. The dated catalyst is tomorrow: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said foreign ministers from Iran, Iraq and other Persian Gulf littoral states will meet in Oman on Monday 14 September, with Iran–Oman negotiations on safe commercial shipping through Hormuz on the agenda.

That is still not the Hormuz watchlist wake. The wake remains unpublished restricted-zone coordinates, a signed corridor Muscat confirms, or war-risk and AIS that settle the IRGC counter-claim. Baghaei paired commitment language with the claim that security “cannot be guaranteed” while US actions continue — a meeting date, not a reopening. East-West remains dark into the meeting.

What to watch: Muscat confirmation and any communiqué; published coordinates; whether Yanbu loadings resume before the ministers leave.

Florida & Tampa Bay: officials are investigating a possible dengue death — and the vaccine comment window closes Sunday

DOH confirmed to WFTS/TampaBay28 that it is actively investigating the recently reported death of a Hillsborough resident possibly associated with dengue infection, and said it cannot provide further details under Florida Statutes §381.0031(6). Family accounts, carried by Patch and others, say a Tampa woman died on her 80th birthday at Tampa General Hospital. Cause is not officially confirmed.

The week-35 ledger from Friday stands: 111 locally acquired cases statewide, Hillsborough 95. TGH’s Kartik Cherabuddi said the mainland US has not seen this many local cases in the modern era, and that the hospital is seeing moderate and severe disease with hospitalisations. Hillsborough health officer Carla Fry noted only about one in four infections is symptomatic — so the true burden is higher than the ledger.

Separately, comment on school-entry vaccine rule 64D-3.046 closes Sunday 14 September. Physicians requested a hearing; none has been granted. If the window closes without one, the next fight is at DOAH. Pasco’s final budget adoption is Tuesday 22 September; Pinellas Thursday 24 September — dates corrected Friday.

What to watch: whether DOH confirms or rules out dengue as cause; week 36; Pasco reaching double figures; a granted vaccine hearing date.

California still has eighteen days on the AI conduct bills

No signature or veto overnight. Still unsigned against the 30 September governor deadline: SB 1000 (Transparency Act rewrite — drops the 1m-user threshold, urgency clause so it bites on signature), SB 947 (No Robo Bosses), and SB 903 (AI psychotherapy). The audit bills (SB 813, AB 1405) and the child-safety package are already law. Colorado’s revised ADMT draft is due 23 September.

What to watch: SB 1000 especially; DOJ AI Litigation Task Force naming any California statute; Colorado’s redraft.

On Monday, duration of status ends — the first of two defaults coming off

The text did not move overnight. The calendar did: DHS final rule FR 2026-14439 takes effect Monday 15 September, ending duration-of-status admission for F, J and I classifications. Fixed admission to the I-20 / DS-2019 end date, capped at four years, plus 30 days. Existing D/S holders may remain to programme end or four years from the effective date, whichever is first.

The companion proposal to delete the post-employment grace period (FR 2026-18631) remains open for comment through 10 November. Two structural defaults off nonimmigrant status inside a month; Monday is the first bite. Status can be cured; unlawful presence triggers the non-discretionary 3- and 10-year bars.

What to watch: any last-minute stay; extension-of-stay adjudication times; who files on the grace-period docket.